US - FED QE Starts as Analysed before in last 1 year, Silver and Gold above 4000USD, COMEX Future’s settlement Rules changed Overnight

Changing tools of War - Commodities Energy, Agri, Bullion, Money, Rates, Insurance ! And It is orchestrated to reduce the Gold and Silver Prices to keep the USD as king of Currencies ? What was done before to keep the hegemony paramount ?

Is it repeating like - Silver Thursday" of 1980, when the COMEX introduced "Silver Rule 7" to prevent the Hunt brothers from cornering the market or 2011 silver peak, where the CME raised margins five times in just nine days, causing a 30% collapse in prices ? 

Something brutal and unprecedented happing in Silver which is shaking bullion markets - Comex to Exchange Japan Asia ! Margins increased on 26th in Comex by 15-18%. Premiums fallen by 10-20% on futures, Commodity shortfall for settlement, china ban’s export, Spot price difference is almost 50-80% ! 

Industries EV, Electronics, Solar and companies like Tesla are into trouble as exchange ware house and their inventories are left for only 1.5 month ! 

Hoarding at it’s highest and it’s not merely paper future price discovery play ! 

It’s actual and Real ! Margin and collateral increase May not work and May even lead to contango (Undhabadla) or even change in settlement and MTM norms to carry over positions and avoid settlement defaults !  

Further Questions :

• T Bill Buying isn’t Quantitative Easing? 
• Why and What it means - Gold and Silver Volatility? 
• Is BIS, Central Banks and Governments started accepting Geo Economic Change to Multi Polar and Multi-currency/Trade Currency / Bilateral / Regional Currency Regime - over time? BRICS Role and Russia’s final contribution to this fact!
• Is selling happening in controlled manner and through intermediaries? 
• Is Bullion Bank and Investment Banks in settlement trouble? 
• Is Euro US hegemony getting reduced on ground? 
• What it means when Russia goes and files suit in 14 jurisdictions across the world against Euroclear (Belgian Securities Depository) and gets an injunction on Sovereign Money in Europe? 
• What it means when the court says that it is a wrong Political motive against the UN charter of no appropriation of central bank / sovereign cross holdings / assets? 
• What it means in the world and for Europe when Russia nationalises European assets/investments?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-10/fed-says-it-will-begin-treasury-bill-purchases-on-dec-12

 FED Starts T Bills Buying from 12th Dec 2025 as was analysed and repeatedly shared -   

https://dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com/2025/11/retail-real-estate-us-china-japan.html

“World is at 315T USD of Debt with US at 38 TUSD.- No worries !! QE is solution for all.”    

Gold and Silver Crashes by 5-9% between 29th Dec 25 -1st Jan 26. 4600-4300 levels

Timing: Purchases began December 12, 2025, following the Fed's December meeting.

Purpose: To ensure ample bank reserves, support effective control of the federal funds rate, and ease short-term funding strains in money markets.

Scale: An initial round of roughly $40 billion in T-bills monthly, plus reinvestments of maturing mortgage-backed securities into T-bills.

Nature: Described as "reserve management purchases" or "technical," not broader monetary easing like QE, although some analysts saw broader implications for funding the deficit.

Duration: Expected to remain elevated for several months (e.g., through April 2026) to counter seasonal liability increases, then potentially reduce pace. 

Impact: 

Market Liquidity: High issuance of T-bills had been draining cash from the banking system, causing short-term rates to rise, so the Fed stepped in to add reserves.

Yields: The announcement, along with a dovish tone from Chair Powell, led to lower bond yields as investors anticipated potential future rate cuts.

Fed's Balance Sheet: This marks an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, following the end of its previous quantitative tightening (QT) program. 

Friday, December 26, 2025 

The December- CME Advisory No. 25-393

The primary catalyst for the current market turmoil was the release of CME Advisory No. 25-393 on. The notice, which took full effect today, Monday, December 29, announced a sharp increase in initial margin requirements for gold, silver, and platinum futures. Silver futures saw initial margins for March 2026 contracts jump from $22,000 to $25,000 per contract—a nearly 14% increase that followed a previous 10% hike just two weeks prior. Platinum margins were hit even harder, seeing a staggering 23% increase in a single day.

The immediate market reaction was swift and brutal. As the opening bell rang on the COMEX, a wave of margin calls forced highly leveraged traders to dump their positions to meet the new collateral requirements. Silver plunged 11% intraday, falling from its peak of $83 to a low of approximately $70.25. Gold followed suit, retreating nearly 5% from its record high of $4,549 to settle in the $4,325 range. The contagion spread globally, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and India’s MCX reporting similar double-digit percentage drops in silver contracts as the "regulatory hammer" echoed across time zones.

Spikes in USD Index DXY , Fx, Gold, Silver, Yields have been unprecedented in last 3 years post covid and in particular Post Republican Govt in US and Tariff related jolts. 

Item	Dec 31 2025	Dec 31 2019
Gold Open Interest contracts	479199	650000
Silver Open Interest contracts	165000	110000
Gold Registered Inventory oz	20000000	22000000
Silver Registered Inventory oz	127624307	200000000
Silver OI to Registered Ratio	4.4	2.0
Gold Spot Price USD per oz	4400	1520
Silver Spot Price USD per oz	72	17.5
Fed Effective Funds Rate percent	3.64	1.63
SOFR percent	3.9
90 Day T Bill Yield percent	3.67	1.61
1 Year Treasury Yield percent	3.48	1.8
10 Year Treasury Yield percent	4.18	1.92
USD Index DXY	101	97.5
USD Share of Global Trade percent	86	88
US Money Supply Index 2019 equals 100	165	100

 Currency Shares in Global Foreign Exchange Reserves (1995–2024)

Year	USD(%)	GBP(%)
1995	59.0	5.2
2000	71.1	1.8
2005	66.5	1.9
2010	62.3	4.4
2015	65.8	4.7
2019	60.8	4.6
2024	57.8	4.7
(Source: IMF COFER data 1995-2024)

Trend Summary

USD has steadily declined as a share of global reserves from ~71% around 2000 to ~58% by 2024.  

GBP has remained relatively small, near ~4½% in recent decades.  

Data from BIS foreign exchange turnover shows USD involved in ~89% of FX trades in 2025.  

Sterling’s share in FX trading dropped to ~10% by 2025. 

It is Consistent with your prior analysis on dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com

Gold, Silver, and Liquidity Management:

A Policy Lens on the December 2025 Volatility and the Changing Global Monetary Order

The sharp decline in gold and silver prices between 29 December 2025 and 1 January 2026 has naturally prompted comparisons with earlier episodes of intervention-driven volatility — notably Silver Thursday (1980) and the 2011 silver peak, when margin increases triggered rapid price collapses.

While there are surface similarities, the current episode is best understood not as a replay of past market panics, but as a demand supply with policy-managed liquidity adjustment occurring against the backdrop of a structural transition in the global monetary and financial system in the backdrop of sudden policy and geopolitical issues 

This distinction matters.

Exposed mismatch of Liquidity Vs Demand & Supply situations ! Vs Paper Players greed and tool to control ! This was not another Silver Thursday, nor a simple speculative blow-off. Demand Supply Mismatch, wrong assessment, Heightened tensions post Tariff issues and undermining of Global Dependency and Transparency leading to using economic and basic tools as arsenals to defeat each other ! 

The immediate trigger for the late-December sell-off was CME Advisory No. 25-393, which sharply raised initial margin requirements for precious metals futures.

Silver margins were increased by nearly 14 percent, following an earlier hike just weeks prior. Platinum margins rose even more aggressively. The result was predictable: leveraged participants were forced to liquidate positions to meet higher collateral requirements. Prices fell quickly, not because underlying demand collapsed, but because liquidity conditions tightened abruptly.

This pattern mirrors earlier episodes in 1980 and 2011, but with an important difference:

the current system absorbed the shock without a breakdown in settlement or delivery.

That outcome is not accidental. It reflects the evolution of market structure and policy response over the past two decades.

The Fed’s T-Bill Purchases: Semantics Versus Function

Just weeks earlier, on 12 December 2025, the Federal Reserve began purchasing Treasury bills at a pace of approximately 40 billion dollars per month, alongside reinvestment of maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-dated Treasuries.

Officially, these operations were described as:

Reserve management, A response to short-term funding pressures, A technical measure rather than quantitative easing

From a narrow definitional standpoint, this distinction holds. The purchases were concentrated at the front end of the curve and framed as temporary.

From a systemic perspective, however, the effect is familiar:

The Fed balance sheet expands

Bank reserves increase

Treasury issuance pressure is absorbed

Repeatedly shared on dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com over several years, the critical question is not how a policy tool is labeled, but what it does to liquidity, leverage, and risk perception with biased approach to keep the world at bay and slave. With the advent of Globalisation and interdependence, things are changing and will need structural opening and changes.

Why Gold and Silver React So Violently to Liquidity Shifts

Gold and silver are uniquely sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions for three reasons:

They are heavily traded through leveraged paper instruments

They sit outside the credit system but are priced within it

They serve both financial and monetary functions

When margins rise or funding tightens, liquidation occurs regardless of longer-term fundamentals. This explains why prices can fall sharply even as broader concerns — debt sustainability, geopolitical risk, and reserve diversification — remain unresolved.

In this sense, volatility in precious metals is not an anomaly. It is a signal of stress within the monetary plumbing, not a verdict on the metals themselves.

Was the Selling Disorderly or Managed?

Despite the speed of the decline, several important observations stand out:

No widespread delivery failures were reported

Physical markets did not exhibit panic

Clearing and settlement systems continued to function

This suggests that selling occurred in a controlled manner, likely intermediated through bullion banks and prime brokers, with the objective of reducing leverage rather than triggering a systemic event.

Modern financial crises are increasingly managed through liquidity and regulation, not resolved through price discovery alone. The December episode fits this pattern.

A Broader Context: Monetary Order Under Strain

The precious metals volatility must also be understood in the context of a gradual but persistent shift in the global monetary system.

Data on reserve composition shows a steady decline in the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves, from over 70 percent around 2000 to under 60 percent by 2024. Sterling has remained a secondary currency throughout, with a stable but limited role.

At the same time, the dollar continues to dominate transaction volumes, accounting for close to 90 percent of global foreign exchange trades. These facts are not contradictory. They reflect a system in which usage remains high, but trust and neutrality are increasingly questioned.

Discussed extensively on dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com, this is a combination of demand supply issue, tariff, geopolitical arsenal, de-dollarization in the simplistic sense.

Custodial Risk and the Repricing of Sovereign Trust

Recent legal actions involving sovereign assets — including disputes surrounding custodial institutions such as Euroclear — highlight a deeper issue: the politicization of financial infrastructure.

When sovereign assets can be frozen, contested, or repurposed for political objectives, custody itself becomes a monetary variable. Central banks and governments respond rationally by:

Reducing concentration risk; Increasing domestic custody, Re-evaluating the role of neutral reserve assets, particularly gold

This trend has been a recurring point in earlier analyses on dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com, well before it entered mainstream policy debate.

Structural Comparison: 2019 Versus 2025

A brief comparison how the environment has changed:

Head	Dec 31 2019	Dec 31 2025
Gold Spot Price USD per oz	1520	4400
Silver Spot Price USD per oz	17.5	72
Silver OI to Registered Inventory	2.0	4.4
Fed Funds Rate percent	1.63	3.64
USD Index DXY	97.5	101
US Money Supply Index 2019 equals 100	100	165

Prices, leverage, and liquidity have all expanded. What has not expanded is systemic resilience.

What This Episode Really Signals

The December 2025 correction in gold and silver does not mark the end of a cycle. It marks a pause imposed by a combination de dollarisation, multi currency structure, trust deficit on account of what is happening between Europe and Russia with confiscation, Ukraine War and supply chain issue of Grains Agri Peoducts as a tool, energy has been used as a tool of war and control for ages, correspondent banking, limits and SEIFT and hence liquidity constraints.

The underlying drivers remain:

High global debt, Increasing geopolitical fragmentation, Declining trust in custodial neutrality, Continued reliance on central bank balance sheets

Shared consistently on dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com, the global system is collapsing. It is adapting under strain, substituting liquidity for reform and regulation for resolution with time it will need to plan for min painful change and if it happens with a bang or if US and Europe chooses to hurry and take wrong political decisions, we May see economic, political or even a large military conflicts ! 

Conclusion

This was not another Silver Thursday, nor a simple speculative blow-off. Demand Supply Mismatch, wrong assessment, Heightened tensions post Tariff issues and undermining of Global Dependency and Transparency leading to using economic and basic tools as arsenals to defeat each other ! 

It is a policy-mediated adjustment in a system navigating unprecedented debt levels, geopolitical risk, and monetary fragmentation.

Gold and silver remain volatile precisely because they sit at the intersection of these forces. Their price behavior should be read not as noise, but as information about the state of the global monetary order

Happy New Year 2026 

Happy and safe investing  

Dinesh Goel