Scenario and Direction

 Scenario and Direction

1. US Political and Policy Change (Geo Political to Business)  shall lead to correction in Prices of selective stocks and Index correction of 10-15% min which is being experienced. It had increased from 27000 level in 2021 to 45000 in Q2/Q3 2024. Now at 42K is already down by 5%. Expect another fall of 5-7% min in next upto May-June 25

2. ⁠This will correct in July-Oct period with Google, Apple and Tesla as max gainers.

3. ⁠Fed Rate 5 to 4.25% (3 Cuts) and 10YBond Yields - sep 2024 3.36 to 4.39% in Nov 2024 - Major Higher Jobs and Inflation 9% in 2022 to 2.7% in Oct 2024, somewhat was a contrarian impact - on yields- on rate cut yields went up which resulted in losses to Banks on HTM and HFT categories with notional and actual losses on Money Market holdings. This based on stronger economic outlook led to more US short term equity investments and being more liquid as investors are expecting correction and buying on correction.

4. ⁠Sentimental impact of USD is creating USD index going to 110 levels and hence covering panic leading to other currencies fall like USD/INR going down to 85.5-86 levels. 

5. ⁠Forex Reserves in India is down by almost 70+B USD which is very negative with FEO trying to stabilise by OMO.

6. ⁠Sensex to remain sluggish for few months with spikes on China US Israel Iran Ukraine Russia Oil news!

7. ⁠USD strengthens and weakens other currencies and when USD weakens even then it weakens other currencies due to shift in rates and carry trades and hedging

8. ⁠Fx to be under pressure for few months with major spikes and fall of 1% is possibility.(Considering Normalised Dep of2.3%pa in USD/INR. Present fall was overdue and as was analysed in Oct Nov 2024 itself.

9. ⁠Bullion Gold and Silver to again start increasing and gain almost 5-7% by July 2025. Present fall was imminent as selling came to stabilise FX and due to policy change and move to Bonds positions.

10. ⁠US Bonds and JGB yields are going to fall. 10YUS Bond yield should fall to 3.5-3.75% Levels in few months. 10YJPY Bonds yield should fall from 1.25 levels to 1.00% levels in next 3-6 months. It increased from 0.6% with inflation at 2.5% level. 

11. ⁠USD/JPY moved exactly as analysed in Oct/Nov that it will fall from 160 to 14-150 Levels and finally it will come down to even 135 levels and the same holds even now.

12. ⁠Pound and Euro is finding it difficult to sustain and falling against all currencies owning to poor economic situation and US playing against European economies. 

13. ⁠What is to be seen is that to what extent Trump and its Currency and economic policies are curtailed by deep state and NATO. As was analysed , Biden Govt and Ukraine has done everything possible to create Havoc before 20th Jan as was analysed and shared. Bombings and further sanctions on OIL trading, processing, insurance companies associated with Russian OIL is a blow - last effort by Biden NATO and Ukraine. Reversal of Such Decisions are imminent post 20th Jan and hence breather.

14. ⁠Chinese recovery and Fx RMB CNY fixation is going to be most critical with BRICS stand in its currency. Russia and Ukraine war is a must to settle - Russia is decaying with 21% Interest Rate and still a sluggish 1-1.5T economy.

15. ⁠It is accordingly advisable to be patient and average losses of 25-30% in portfolio should be able to be covered in 6M to 12M or even to find better selective option to cut losses.

_It is Just a personal view and analysis with Natural and Commercial Disclaimer of of no risk and liability of others decisions_

Dynasties To Nations

Evolution of Earth ID Adam & Eve on going Division

Fear - Insecurity - Greed - Supremacy

Tools 

Colonialism

Slavery

Predatory and Supremacy Capital Theory 

A lot has been written and analysed on the subject but a new perspective can also help in relating and refering by this and next generations. Richest Families and Dynasties control more than $1.4 trillion (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion) (1,400,000,000,000) of wealth. 

@Fear, Insecurity, Greed, Habbit - Becomes DNA (Micheal Porter's - Theory of Competitive Advantage)

Geo Political - Securing Self 1800 onwards - Families like Rothschild, Walton, Hermes, Thomson, Arnault, Koch, Merc, Cargill, British Queen (Commonwealth 150 countries ongoing division and loot) , etc Auto, Steel, Energy ( Petroleum, Gas, Coal ) , Ferrous, Non Ferrous, Agri, Markets, Lending, Banks, Precious Metals, R&D, 

Dynasties to Nations 

2000 onwards - China - Congo - Cobalt - Nickel -Copper (80%) Cobalt is owned by Congo 15-19 mines. 

It is same just copy paste in areas where these Dynasties, Families and countries have not been able to grow - Old top 5 Families have for years know energy , precious metals , ferrous, non ferrous, steel, paper, and agri - and hence Europe French Britain Russia and US has been concentrating on this - New Industries and source with supply chain has not been of interest to them - Hence Vacuum was there in this space - there are other critical ownerships - and capturing - Africa, Asia, Ports, Airports, Space Source, Sea Source, Lending, eWTP for Governments - 4 countries already are on the platform, with Largest Solar Industry, Largest Dams, Largest Turbines, Biggest Aircraft Engines, Chemical and Bio Warfare, Artificial Sun, Desert to Green Agri, Cheapest to best Premium Products ) even earth has reduced its speed due to China’s Dam. 

US and Britain are examples of biggest coloniser and Supremacy using tools like Nuke, Army, Technology, SWIFT, Currency, Capital, Bond Markets, Reserve Currency, UN, World Bank, IFC, USAID, Spy Agencies, Political Upheaval - evolving Deep State. LIBOR to SOFR . It has been carry trade by way of petro dollars and reserve currency by fooling world of pegging USD with Gold and removing Gold. World is clear about USD and Currency as Tool of Slavery and hence US debt is almost 40 Trillion which is almost 1.5 times of GDP. Buying WhatsApp for 19B, Twitter(X) for 44B, Silicon Valley, Experiments, Wastage, Largest Defence expenditure , pharma and technology - is because America has the availability of Funds. Hence one should go and become another entrepreneur in US as ot is the source, teacher and leader of all scams and techniques of equity, debt, quasi instrument markets. 

Japan for Miniaturisation, Electronics, Trading, Automotive - have been left behind as they have not grown in other catching industries! It started playing to US dictate from 1992 onwards after 1988 Asian Currency Crisis and hence slowly in 15 years lost its position in almost every industry.

Europe British, French the leading economies have lost lustre as competitive advantage of Commonwealth loot and energy resource control is fading away and even LIBOR accordingly shifted to SOFR. Bullion and Precious Metal Exchange is also slowly moving with 5 major Banks controlling precious markets are also loosing it's sheen due to US revaluation of assets and making Bonds US treasuries and Gold Holdings , Insurance too illiquid. China with 7T dollars of treasuries and Japan with 4T Dollars are reducing exposure with great difficulty. PPP, Basket of 5 currencies, USD Index etc are all ruled by US banks. Rating Agencies the world knows by know is controlled and play to the orders and interest of US agencies and  FED.

Growing and finding a place in the backdrop of ongoing - 

Education and Continuous Growth is base for Indian Leadership. India is regaining its leadership. Ambani, Adani, Mittal, Bagri, ONGC Videsh, Jindal’s etc are playing Competitive leadership roles post 2000. 

1975-1991 

India played and bothered about politics and internal upheaval- Emergency, Political Killings, Reservation and short governments leading to degrading economy, no direction, submitting to predatory and slavery capital and accepting succumbing to predatory slavery international religious communities of Christianity, and Muslims by amendments to constitution and introduction to Acts which have been against 3 pillars of India DNA Justice, Liberty and Equality. 

1991-2000 

Revival of Economy and Groups. India did well in areas of its excellence - Theory of Competitive Advantage - (Micheal Porter) Technology, BPO, Metals, Management etc and Money when started becoming available by way of counterparty exposures, retained earnings - Expansion and Securing and Growing started happening. Internally and Globally. It has still not been predatory and slavery. 

2014 onwards 

It has been a New India - It’s acceptance by International Community of Indian Prowess and following the globalisation -Glocal Mantra - and hence banks mergers, UPI, Wallet, Ports, Defence, ISRO, Space, DRDO, GST changes, Tax Collections, eHUB, etc has taken the Indian Direction to next level. Energy Security is still one such field which has been deprived under duress of US and OPEC. This once changed in next 25 years will change dominance. Happy Investing

Keep Working ...

Happy Investing and Happy New Year 2025...

Virtuous is Virtual - The Earth ID

Virtuous is Virtual - The Earth ID and Equity Cult 

Virtuous- The Virtue’s are losing its inherent qualities and becoming Virtual as Virtual as an adjective too loosing its meaning of being able to exhibit the virtuous qualities 

19-20-21st Centuries and known 5-10000 of history …

The Cycle - Virtuous is Virtual - History shall Repeat and we don’t even know the unknown and unheard of Situation of 10000 years ago….

1920-1945-1973-2025

1. Japanese Nippon Steel Eyeing US Steel - Trump tries to Block Deal - 2025 (Decaying of Japanese Power) 

2. BRICS with 30% share of world , 50% population share and Self reliant on every aspect tries to DeDollarise , Tariff Threat 2023-24 

3. ⁠China Stands against US 1978-2024

3. ⁠Saudi’s Dump US, 

4. Petrodollar is Over 

5. Gold is Back with Bang

6. ⁠LIBOR To SOFR

7. ⁠5 Currency Basket in Danger

8. ⁠World Bank , IFC against ADB and BRICS Bank

9. ⁠Rigged Rating Agency Linked Counter Party Limits getting Over

End of UK and European dominance in last 25 years and decaying of old beliefs

Decaying of Asia and Coming Back of India 

So What is the way forward for equity cult, more so when the world is at same platform of information and dissemination of quality of life and rights are equally available on click - 

Nations should Buy large US Assets by pledging US treasuries and leveraging from US Banks itself LBO’s … Nations should extend guarantee for such LBO’s by way of Creating funds against Such US  Treasury Holdings 

Reply in same language and end of USD and King will become Slave in the hands of Other Nations

Have the Appreciating Currencies in Place and PEG National Currrencies against Need of Necessity Index in Qty - Agri+Energy (Crude+Gas)+Ferrous+Non Ferrous+Bullion  of World Produce including stocks - with every KG or GM to be Valued as 1 Unit of Currency - then based on Transfer Pricing - Barter - World Currency is Created which is used as Base Currency for REER and NOT PPP. 

People and Human Rights means Right Life , Freedom and Equality First.

All International and Bilateral Decisions of Nations by way of Ballot at  World Council and scrapping or renaming UN  and NO 5 BIG Daddy !!  It has reached to a stage of Diminishing Returns and system is defunct!

Series II Trump Triumps US Dollar

 15 Nov 2024

Series II Trump Triumps US Dollar

flight of capital happening, due to reduction in Yields as inversely proportional to price of bonds. 

Spikes in Dollar and tariffs, and markets for next 6 months,

Equities can be -5% even from here but will bounce back and stabilise at 77500/80000 Sensex.

USD INR can further fall to 85 levels.

USD JPY Will appreciate JPYbwill appreciate to 135-145 levels from 155 now

Gold will further fall 5-10% and bounce back next year.

Expect a major sanction and action to boost Dollar.

Elon Musk Next President .

Ukraine war to stop but on the condition that Russia will not support and supply weapons to Iran and Iran backed groups and Iran May see further bombings / or major sanctions. 

People taking money out from all hyped markets

Only Banking is bought.

World Debt Markets 

Due to Convexity and Duration Impact - 

per percentage reduction in yield per trillion dollars will be 0.5-0.75 /100 USD denomination of Govt Bonds - US Dollar’s (2-3 years)

impact on prices will be 

5B USD per trillion minimum which can double due to trading and inefficiencies 

When reduction of 2% is expected over next 2-3 years- 31-50T USD treasuries will benefit almost 200-400 B USD gain and hence flight of capital. 

Accordingly all countries holding US Treasuries are trying to benefit on this. This will increase demand and hence.

USD is a double edged sword as if it appreciates and interest rates reduce- people dump local currencies and borrow and hedge (swaps) in USD. When it depreciates , rates increase countries loose on investments and holdings and consequently local currencies too depreciates and their ratings start falling as counterparty exposures and country ratings too fall ! As Banks world over loose on treasuries and have to book MTM and they go slow and hold counterparty and country limits.

With  or  symbols, the countries where 10Y yield changed considerably (more than 50 bp) in the last 3 months.
With green or red background, the recent ratings/interest rates variations.

If data are not all visible, swipe table left

		Rating	10Y Bond		Bank	Spread vs		Spread vs
	Country	S&P	Yield▴		Rate	Bund	T-Note	Bank Rate
	Switzerland	AAA	0.399%		1.00%	-192.8 bp	-402.2 bp	-60.1 bp
	Japan	A+	1.086%		0.25%	-124.1 bp	-333.5 bp	83.6 bp
	Taiwan	AA+	1.525%		2.00%	-80.2 bp	-289.6 bp	-47.5 bp
	Serbia (*)	BBB-	1.965%		5.75%	-36.2 bp	-245.6 bp	-378.5 bp
	Denmark	AAA	2.056%		2.85%	-27.1 bp	-236.5 bp	-79.4 bp
	China	A+	2.083%		3.10%	-24.4 bp	-233.8 bp	-101.7 bp
	Sweden	AAA	2.170%		2.75%	-15.7 bp	-225.1 bp	-58.0 bp
	Germany	AAA	2.327%		3.40%	0.0 bp	-209.4 bp	-107.3 bp
	Thailand	BBB+	2.435%		2.25%	10.8 bp	-198.6 bp	18.5 bp
	Netherlands	AAA	2.580%		3.40%	25.3 bp	-184.1 bp	-82.0 bp
	Ireland	AA	2.634%		3.40%	30.7 bp	-178.7 bp	-76.6 bp
	Finland	AA+	2.749%		3.40%	42.2 bp	-167.2 bp	-65.1 bp
	Austria	AA+	2.781%		3.40%	45.4 bp	-164.0 bp	-61.9 bp
	Portugal	A-	2.804%		3.40%	47.7 bp	-161.7 bp	-59.6 bp
	Vietnam	BB+	2.821%		4.50%	49.4 bp	-160.0 bp	-167.9 bp
	Singapore	AAA	2.858%		2.94%	53.1 bp	-156.3 bp	-8.2 bp
	Belgium	AA	2.935%		3.40%	60.8 bp	-148.6 bp	-46.5 bp
	South Korea	AA	2.976%		3.25%	64.9 bp	-144.5 bp	-27.4 bp
	Cyprus	BBB+	3.001%		3.40%	67.4 bp	-142.0 bp	-39.9 bp
	Slovenia	AA-	3.041%		3.40%	71.4 bp	-138.0 bp	-35.9 bp
	Spain	A-	3.052%		3.40%	72.5 bp	-136.9 bp	-34.8 bp
	France	AA-	3.113%		3.40%	78.6 bp	-130.8 bp	-28.7 bp
	Croatia	A-	3.215%		3.40%	88.8 bp	-120.6 bp	-18.5 bp
	Greece	BBB-	3.216%		3.40%	88.9 bp	-120.5 bp	-18.4 bp
	Slovakia	A+	3.239%		3.40%	91.2 bp	-118.2 bp	-16.1 bp
	Morocco	BB+	3.260%		2.75%	93.3 bp	-116.1 bp	51.0 bp
	Malta	A-	3.263%		3.40%	93.6 bp	-115.8 bp	-13.7 bp
	Hong Kong	AA+	3.354%		5.00%	102.7 bp	-106.7 bp	-164.6 bp
	Lithuania	A	3.401%		3.40%	107.4 bp	-102.0 bp	0.1 bp
	Canada	AAA	3.486%		3.75%	115.9 bp	-93.5 bp	-26.4 bp
	Italy	BBB	3.559%		3.40%	123.2 bp	-86.2 bp	15.9 bp
	Bulgaria	BBB	3.629%		3.22%	130.2 bp	-79.2 bp	40.9 bp
	Norway	AAA	3.740%		4.50%	141.3 bp	-68.1 bp	-76.0 bp
	Malaysia	A-	3.870%		3.00%	154.3 bp	-55.1 bp	87.0 bp
	Czech Republic	AA-	3.951%		4.00%	162.4 bp	-47.0 bp	-4.9 bp
	United States	AA+	4.421%		4.75%	209.4 bp	0.0 bp	-32.9 bp
	United Kingdom	AA	4.442%		4.75%	211.5 bp	2.1 bp	-30.8 bp
	Australia	AAA	4.618%		4.35%	229.1 bp	19.7 bp	26.8 bp
	Israel	A	4.624%		4.50%	229.7 bp	20.3 bp	12.4 bp
	Mauritius	BBB-	4.695%		4.00%	236.8 bp	27.4 bp	69.5 bp
	New Zealand	AA+	4.755%		4.75%	242.8 bp	33.4 bp	0.5 bp
	Qatar (*)	AA	4.895%		5.40%	256.8 bp	47.4 bp	-50.5 bp
	Chile	A	5.570%		5.25%	324.3 bp	114.9 bp	32.0 bp
	Poland	A-	5.572%		5.75%	324.5 bp	115.1 bp	-17.8 bp
	Philippines	BBB+	5.970%		6.00%	364.3 bp	154.9 bp	-3.0 bp
	Bahrain (*)	B+	6.224%		5.50%	389.7 bp	180.3 bp	72.4 bp
	Perù	BBB-	6.673%		5.00%	434.6 bp	225.2 bp	167.3 bp
	Hungary	BBB-	6.740%		6.50%	441.3 bp	231.9 bp	24.0 bp
	Iceland	A+	6.812%		8.50%	448.5 bp	239.1 bp	-168.8 bp
	Indonesia	BBB	6.891%		6.00%	456.4 bp	247.0 bp	89.1 bp
	India	BBB-	6.951%		6.50%	462.4 bp	253.0 bp	45.1 bp
	Romania	BBB-	7.160%		6.50%	483.3 bp	273.9 bp	66.0 bp
	Botswana (*)	BBB+	7.355%		1.90%	502.8 bp	293.4 bp	545.5 bp
	South Africa	BB-	8.955%		7.75%	662.8 bp	453.4 bp	120.5 bp
	Namibia		9.312%		7.25%	698.5 bp	489.1 bp	206.2 bp
	Colombia	BB+	10.137%		9.75%	781.0 bp	571.6 bp	38.7 bp
	Mexico	BBB	10.279%		10.25%	795.2 bp	585.8 bp	2.9 bp
	Ukraine (*)	SD	11.795%		13.00%	946.8 bp	737.4 bp	-120.5 bp
	Sri Lanka	SD	12.109%		8.25%	978.2 bp	768.8 bp	385.9 bp
	Pakistan	CCC+	12.460%		15.00%	1013.3 bp	803.9 bp	-254.0 bp
	Brazil	BB	12.785%		11.25%	1045.8 bp	836.4 bp	153.5 bp
	Bangladesh	B+	12.950%		10.00%	1062.3 bp	852.9 bp	295.0 bp
	Kazakhstan	BBB-	13.121%		14.25%	1079.4 bp	870.0 bp	-112.9 bp
	Kenya	B-	16.000%		12.00%	1367.3 bp	1157.9 bp	400.0 bp
	Russia	NR	16.293%		21.00%	1396.6 bp	1187.2 bp	-470.7 bp
	Uganda	B-	16.966%		9.75%	1463.9 bp	1254.5 bp	721.6 bp
	Nigeria	B-	21.298%		27.25%	1897.1 bp	1687.7 bp	-595.2 bp
	Zambia	SD	22.200%		14.00%	1987.3 bp	1777.9 bp	820.0 bp
	Egypt	B-	25.873%		27.25%	2354.6 bp	2145.2 bp	-137.7 bp
	Turkey	BB-	28.070%		50.00%	2574.3 bp	2364.9 bp	-2193.0 bp

In the case of countries marked with (*), the 10-year bond yield is not market-derived. Its value is calculated based on the returns of the other available durations.