Economic And Monetary Policy Direction India Japan America China

Economic and Monetary Policy  Direction 

China India Japan America

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/larger-than-expected-surprise-rbi-cuts-repo-rate-by-50-bps-to-5-5-emis-to-come-down/articleshow/121664705.cms

Strategically as a matter of direction -

1. Increasing Money Supply before others do 

2. ⁠Good to reduce rates to be able to push INR borrowing and be coat effective in exports 

3. ⁠Leads to increased consumption and hence GDP Growth

4. ⁠Long term impact will be good as this will help increase Joint Ventures and foreign companies to come and invest as differential reducing 

5. ⁠Increase in INR/USD or appreciation in Rupee is  a boon for repatriation and hence lucarative to investors, Chinese have followed this strategy for more than 15 years,

6. ⁠This is in line with a long term strategy which was folllowed post 1988 Asian currency crisis which led to ‘0’  zero rate policy by Japan JPy (beating liquidity premium theory) in 1991., then by Swissy CHF from 1995-2010,  USD from 1973 onwards…and USD index is , currency basket and parity of USD-CHF, Pound- Euro proves of strong power play of strategy.

7. ⁠2008 onwards QE and blackrock with other funds have cinsistenly followed the beating of LPT by having 0.5% rates for almost 10 years! 

8. ⁠All this has resulted Carry trade ( dumping own currency for other currencies ) and hence JPY/CHF/USD and cross hedging for interest rates appreciating Currency pairs. - This eventually leads to further depreciation of own Local currencies like INR etc due to lack of demand

9. ⁠For all this to happen, country like india and indian companies - have to increase international trade, appreciate currency, reduce inflation, be current and capital account surplus , create currency acceptability in international exchange and develop a robust large domestics money market (depth, breadth, settlement guarantee, multiple convexity and duration delivery) by allowing international players (investment banks) to trade. JGB’s are classic example for the same. Vietnam is implementing since last 3 years the systems and practices.

10. ⁠This should be the task for ADB, BRICS bank of creating Asian System. India should propose MM ,  IDBRT, NEAT, SGF, Currency Parity like LIBOR (Now accepted is SOFR). This is the only way to come out of slavery of USD/SWIFT/SOFR. Decoupling. As petrodollars are over and this will lead to addition of other currencies as reserve currency for Countries Central Banks, World Bank, ADB. USD is just a BITCOIN.

11. ⁠Gold revaluation by US is due as US will start another QE to handle its MM (bonds market) obligations of around 1-1.5(4 T) TUSD interests.

12. ⁠already Global GDP and US GDP has direct correlation with Bonds , QE and JGB as carry on interest and currency happens.

13. ⁠Banks (Treasuries) are going to make good profits on Currency and Bonds market as the direction is clear and bond prices to increase.

14. ⁠It is a vicious cycle where once into QE as tool, because of Inflation , stagflation, stagnation and interest differential, erosion in REER/PPP leads to Revaluation of Assets ( Implied ), and hence to be able to push economy and beat other countries, one has to have a direction and such clear systems and practices and should not change due to political changes and that is why Independence / Freedom of Central Banks / Monetary Authority - is a critical aspect of sustained growth ! 

Food for Thought!!

Happy Investing and Growing! 

Dinesh Goel

New King of Planet Making It’s Place Trump

 New King of Planet Making It’s Place 

All this what is happening was not known by experts ? By the King himself who is a successful fashioned entrepreneur and billionaire ? Is he doing experiments ? 

For To be a king , thought has to be different - unless one weakens opponents how the new king will rule ? 

For making opposition weak tools are reducing monetary power and breaking the network !! Other tools are also there like judiciary and investigations on decisions and actions ! 

Imagine the impact of investigation on accepted fact when Zelenskyy says 200 B USD aid not received ? Who all should be investigated.

Who are common people and agencies 1. Blackrock 2. Larry Fink 3. Bill Gates 4. Elon Musk 5. Tesla 6. George Soros 7. Warren Buffet 8. Aramco 9. Saudi King Salman 10. Putin 11. Britain King 12. French Govt  13. China 14. Indians. 15. Top 50-100 Companies like Apple, IBM, Lenovo, Banks, Investment Banks 16. Controlling Corporate families like Rothschild , Cargill etc 

The network and power / muscle is being broken and hence unless this is not done , Trumph will have to go - impeached ! Hence - all election agenda and actions everyday made is benefitting whom ? New Ecosystem of New King !! 

US with 9000 T of Gold - is another tool which is being used and is expected to be revalued as is done every three years, this is what allows them to reprint and follow expansion - quantitative easing. So with BRICS and other countries creating gold backed currencies and bilateral barter currency trade with separate system moving away from SWIFT can lead to more demand and interest in Gold. India being the largest with almost approx 75 lakh crore of gold cult, happens to have around 7000-8000 T with people with average annual accretion of around 200T. India, China and Russia will continue to buy more gold with even Britain and Europeans investing. These countries have already started getting back their hold holdings from Britain and US banks.

The issue is even bigger when it comes to Interest Rates, there will be increased burden and rate reduction will become a challenge with inflation. QC Vs QE Vs USD Index. 

The Problem is that whether USD depreciates or appreciates, it’s always going to favour US considering unwind and increase in carry trades due to decreasing interest in home currencies of countries!

Tilt in Trade currency basket and unwinding with loosening of power and reduced Sale of Weapons will lead to reduced power of Super Power! Already UN , Security Council, World bank and Crude with Petrodollars has lost its sheen !! Even China and Russia has given alternative to Saudi, Iran and third world.

Minerals and Mines (Ferrous and Non Ferrous) has already lost it’s lustre with African continents 26 countries growing and nothing much is left as Coal and ferrous / non ferrous precious metals are all looted and excavated / allocated. Hence the need for Ukraine with 1 T USD of assets - Problem - already captured by Russia which in any case will not be acceptable to US and Europe!! Hence no option to continue War or settle between 4 parties ( China , US, Russia and Europe )

Crude is already loosing its importance owing to alternate energy sources and green energy with automotive sector shifting to EV and gaining almost 8-10% of world market.

Industries too are less dependent on Generator Sets and hence Solar playing almost 20-25% world energy requirement. Brent Crudes Average has been 77USD/Barrel with marginal coating of avg 2 USD / b of production cost.

Venezuela has been quite due to the fact that US has met it’s own demand internally and Saudi wants to rule crude market. 

Reason for Saudi to come up with 500b Real Estate Development as an alternate to Dubai is for the reason of expected reduced Crude dependency. 

Increased expenditure on Weapon and Army by Japan, Europe , China, India , UAE and Russia will lead to further USD borrowings and increased Fiscal deficits. How long and period of the activities will show it’s impact and colors in medium term of 3 years and at least the direction is getting clearer.

This unwinding and Contango or grid locking will have its cost which the world should be ready to pay and that’s exactly what will happen in next 3 years. Loosing of grip by superpower creates multiple power centres and hence will lead to more powerful regional blocks but eventually more safe and secure with better understanding as at least regional blocks will not be in a position to fight because of of structured economic and political exposure.

It was shared that it is going to be inflationary for US economy and against the expansionary / quantitative easing.

US Economy will also have to pay a price as interests will have to be shifted.

Yield Curve and interest outgo on 31 T USD of outstanding Treasuries with sensitivities of additional 1% interest will lead to huge outgo and fall in treasury losses of almost 250-500 BUSD of banks treasury losses! Reason why economists predict recession in US and referring to 1930- But , things have changed and nothing of this sort will happen as the world is slave of USD and Reserve Currency.

Govt’s in Geo Political Interest re-alignment will happen with the-  The new King of Planet

Europeans and NATO are also threatened as a block to align , Zelenskyy is threatened and even Putin checkmated. Ukraine, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Turkey, Iran and Syria are going to be the biggest problems of next 2 years! 

China threatened to align and same with Canada.

As a King of Planet and Superpower , the new King is making it’s place and trying to have it’s say for himself his family and associates. Politics seema to be driving economics and all agencies too! Economics is still sub servient to politics. It is Protection money and power which is being sought by the new ruler!! 

Agri sector cannot remain untouched with Ukraine disturbed, food security is becoming a challenge. This is leading to regional and country hoarding! 

Trade Cost / Freight and supply chain costs are going to be sideways with spikes owing to letting the ships continue to hold and carry for longer leading to hoarding on ships silo’s!! Let’s see how the S4/S5/S6 behaves out of 7 routes! 

Unless this settles, Steel, Auto and then as follower (lagging) industry Real Estate will face the heat. Isn’t fall of Real Estate prices and stocks going to benefit the new ecosystem? 

Just have patience as everything is notional - gain and loss , best time for day traders and AI/ Quant Models in all 5 Markets !! The dust settles ! Energy has to settle ! It’s a matter of time !! Overnight strategies and profit analysis is deciding the next days statement !! 

https://dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com/2024/11/series-ii-trump-triumps-us-dollar.html

Scenario and Direction

 Scenario and Direction

1. US Political and Policy Change (Geo Political to Business)  shall lead to correction in Prices of selective stocks and Index correction of 10-15% min which is being experienced. It had increased from 27000 level in 2021 to 45000 in Q2/Q3 2024. Now at 42K is already down by 5%. Expect another fall of 5-7% min in next upto May-June 25

2. ⁠This will correct in July-Oct period with Google, Apple and Tesla as max gainers.

3. ⁠Fed Rate 5 to 4.25% (3 Cuts) and 10YBond Yields - sep 2024 3.36 to 4.39% in Nov 2024 - Major Higher Jobs and Inflation 9% in 2022 to 2.7% in Oct 2024, somewhat was a contrarian impact - on yields- on rate cut yields went up which resulted in losses to Banks on HTM and HFT categories with notional and actual losses on Money Market holdings. This based on stronger economic outlook led to more US short term equity investments and being more liquid as investors are expecting correction and buying on correction.

4. ⁠Sentimental impact of USD is creating USD index going to 110 levels and hence covering panic leading to other currencies fall like USD/INR going down to 85.5-86 levels. 

5. ⁠Forex Reserves in India is down by almost 70+B USD which is very negative with FEO trying to stabilise by OMO.

6. ⁠Sensex to remain sluggish for few months with spikes on China US Israel Iran Ukraine Russia Oil news!

7. ⁠USD strengthens and weakens other currencies and when USD weakens even then it weakens other currencies due to shift in rates and carry trades and hedging

8. ⁠Fx to be under pressure for few months with major spikes and fall of 1% is possibility.(Considering Normalised Dep of2.3%pa in USD/INR. Present fall was overdue and as was analysed in Oct Nov 2024 itself.

9. ⁠Bullion Gold and Silver to again start increasing and gain almost 5-7% by July 2025. Present fall was imminent as selling came to stabilise FX and due to policy change and move to Bonds positions.

10. ⁠US Bonds and JGB yields are going to fall. 10YUS Bond yield should fall to 3.5-3.75% Levels in few months. 10YJPY Bonds yield should fall from 1.25 levels to 1.00% levels in next 3-6 months. It increased from 0.6% with inflation at 2.5% level. 

11. ⁠USD/JPY moved exactly as analysed in Oct/Nov that it will fall from 160 to 14-150 Levels and finally it will come down to even 135 levels and the same holds even now.

12. ⁠Pound and Euro is finding it difficult to sustain and falling against all currencies owning to poor economic situation and US playing against European economies. 

13. ⁠What is to be seen is that to what extent Trump and its Currency and economic policies are curtailed by deep state and NATO. As was analysed , Biden Govt and Ukraine has done everything possible to create Havoc before 20th Jan as was analysed and shared. Bombings and further sanctions on OIL trading, processing, insurance companies associated with Russian OIL is a blow - last effort by Biden NATO and Ukraine. Reversal of Such Decisions are imminent post 20th Jan and hence breather.

14. ⁠Chinese recovery and Fx RMB CNY fixation is going to be most critical with BRICS stand in its currency. Russia and Ukraine war is a must to settle - Russia is decaying with 21% Interest Rate and still a sluggish 1-1.5T economy.

15. ⁠It is accordingly advisable to be patient and average losses of 25-30% in portfolio should be able to be covered in 6M to 12M or even to find better selective option to cut losses.

_It is Just a personal view and analysis with Natural and Commercial Disclaimer of of no risk and liability of others decisions_

Dynasties To Nations

Evolution of Earth ID Adam & Eve on going Division

Fear - Insecurity - Greed - Supremacy

Tools 

Colonialism

Slavery

Predatory and Supremacy Capital Theory 

A lot has been written and analysed on the subject but a new perspective can also help in relating and refering by this and next generations. Richest Families and Dynasties control more than $1.4 trillion (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion) (1,400,000,000,000) of wealth. 

@Fear, Insecurity, Greed, Habbit - Becomes DNA (Micheal Porter's - Theory of Competitive Advantage)

Geo Political - Securing Self 1800 onwards - Families like Rothschild, Walton, Hermes, Thomson, Arnault, Koch, Merc, Cargill, British Queen (Commonwealth 150 countries ongoing division and loot) , etc Auto, Steel, Energy ( Petroleum, Gas, Coal ) , Ferrous, Non Ferrous, Agri, Markets, Lending, Banks, Precious Metals, R&D, 

Dynasties to Nations 

2000 onwards - China - Congo - Cobalt - Nickel -Copper (80%) Cobalt is owned by Congo 15-19 mines. 

It is same just copy paste in areas where these Dynasties, Families and countries have not been able to grow - Old top 5 Families have for years know energy , precious metals , ferrous, non ferrous, steel, paper, and agri - and hence Europe French Britain Russia and US has been concentrating on this - New Industries and source with supply chain has not been of interest to them - Hence Vacuum was there in this space - there are other critical ownerships - and capturing - Africa, Asia, Ports, Airports, Space Source, Sea Source, Lending, eWTP for Governments - 4 countries already are on the platform, with Largest Solar Industry, Largest Dams, Largest Turbines, Biggest Aircraft Engines, Chemical and Bio Warfare, Artificial Sun, Desert to Green Agri, Cheapest to best Premium Products ) even earth has reduced its speed due to China’s Dam. 

US and Britain are examples of biggest coloniser and Supremacy using tools like Nuke, Army, Technology, SWIFT, Currency, Capital, Bond Markets, Reserve Currency, UN, World Bank, IFC, USAID, Spy Agencies, Political Upheaval - evolving Deep State. LIBOR to SOFR . It has been carry trade by way of petro dollars and reserve currency by fooling world of pegging USD with Gold and removing Gold. World is clear about USD and Currency as Tool of Slavery and hence US debt is almost 40 Trillion which is almost 1.5 times of GDP. Buying WhatsApp for 19B, Twitter(X) for 44B, Silicon Valley, Experiments, Wastage, Largest Defence expenditure , pharma and technology - is because America has the availability of Funds. Hence one should go and become another entrepreneur in US as ot is the source, teacher and leader of all scams and techniques of equity, debt, quasi instrument markets. 

Japan for Miniaturisation, Electronics, Trading, Automotive - have been left behind as they have not grown in other catching industries! It started playing to US dictate from 1992 onwards after 1988 Asian Currency Crisis and hence slowly in 15 years lost its position in almost every industry.

Europe British, French the leading economies have lost lustre as competitive advantage of Commonwealth loot and energy resource control is fading away and even LIBOR accordingly shifted to SOFR. Bullion and Precious Metal Exchange is also slowly moving with 5 major Banks controlling precious markets are also loosing it's sheen due to US revaluation of assets and making Bonds US treasuries and Gold Holdings , Insurance too illiquid. China with 7T dollars of treasuries and Japan with 4T Dollars are reducing exposure with great difficulty. PPP, Basket of 5 currencies, USD Index etc are all ruled by US banks. Rating Agencies the world knows by know is controlled and play to the orders and interest of US agencies and  FED.

Growing and finding a place in the backdrop of ongoing - 

Education and Continuous Growth is base for Indian Leadership. India is regaining its leadership. Ambani, Adani, Mittal, Bagri, ONGC Videsh, Jindal’s etc are playing Competitive leadership roles post 2000. 

1975-1991 

India played and bothered about politics and internal upheaval- Emergency, Political Killings, Reservation and short governments leading to degrading economy, no direction, submitting to predatory and slavery capital and accepting succumbing to predatory slavery international religious communities of Christianity, and Muslims by amendments to constitution and introduction to Acts which have been against 3 pillars of India DNA Justice, Liberty and Equality. 

1991-2000 

Revival of Economy and Groups. India did well in areas of its excellence - Theory of Competitive Advantage - (Micheal Porter) Technology, BPO, Metals, Management etc and Money when started becoming available by way of counterparty exposures, retained earnings - Expansion and Securing and Growing started happening. Internally and Globally. It has still not been predatory and slavery. 

2014 onwards 

It has been a New India - It’s acceptance by International Community of Indian Prowess and following the globalisation -Glocal Mantra - and hence banks mergers, UPI, Wallet, Ports, Defence, ISRO, Space, DRDO, GST changes, Tax Collections, eHUB, etc has taken the Indian Direction to next level. Energy Security is still one such field which has been deprived under duress of US and OPEC. This once changed in next 25 years will change dominance. Happy Investing

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