UPDATE ON REVIVAL ON CARDS FX GOING FORWARD

IT WAS WRITTEN ON JAN 04

REVIVAL IN LENDING AND MARKETS AFTER JUNE 09- THE SAME IS NOW BEING WRITTEN ALL OVER-PLS SEE LATEST BELOW

IT WAS ESTIMATED THAT USD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 51 BY MARCH 09- IT WAS AT 50.80 LEVELS.

IT WAS ESTIMATED THAT CRUDE WILL INCREASE TO 60 - 75 usd/BARREL - IT HAS GONE UP TO A LEVEL OF 52usd/barrel

IT WAS ESTIMATED THAT ONCE FLOW OF MONEY STARTS BY JUNE- WE MAY SEE RUPEE APPRICIATION DUE TO SHEAR SUPPLY SIDE FACTOR. ON THE DOWNSIDE BY YEAR END/SEPTEMBER 09...WE MAY TEST LEVEL OF 45-47 AS WELL. IN FACT ONE SHOULD START HEDGING SHORT TERM PAYMENTS ON EVERY FALL, AND WAIT FOR THE DELAYED PAYMENTS TO HEDGE CONSIDERING THE SCENARIO.- WITH LEGAL AND COMMERCIAL DISCLAIMER!!. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE HEDGE COST.

05/Apr/2009
Dubai Chronicle
A softening in prices of building materials is expected to kick the construction industry back into action this year, after a first quarter marked by project delays, industry experts say.

People and policies worldover have started writing and accepting- Be cautious - the game of speculators have come into commodities and volatility index in these commodities are one of the highest in last 50 years.

refer
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Is Reversal in Stocks Around The Corner
0 comments Labels: Reversal Could be close if Nifty breaches 3150
Supply band for nifty is b/w 3150-3200, if it can overcome it, we will see significant recovery. In such a case realty companies can be an out performer. Good amount of accumulation has happened in these stocks evident from the huge increase in volumes with sideways movement in stock, over the last 12-14 weeks, stocks to watch: dlf, unitech and others.
Financial , Equity , Debt and Energy Speciaist
AB
Additionally, blog owners comments -
State of Affairs and Outlook
At the same time, as the restructuring of existing loans in realestate sector is happening fast, the expected fall could beaverted. The fall in banking and real estate stocks because of real estate bad loans seems to be getting covered.
The results of the real estate companies are expected to be lower which will even get worsened in June quarter of FY10.
Reduction in CRR and Repo Rate is another reason for the brewing liquidity mismatches on account of debt restructuring and FY end repayment requirements.
Though LIBOR has gone down in the region of 1.5 to 2% levels, the supply side of the USD is still tight and lenders are not yet comfortable giving loans.
The balance sheets are still being finalised by most of the banks and fresh lending and norms will be clearer only after at least 2 quarters i.e. by June 09. Till then there is expected that the USD could be stronger in India and thirds world.
The spiralling impact of Financial Crisis is yet to be seen as the SME sector story is not coming out. SME sector is going to be hit on account of increased rates, not getting the benefit of rate reductions and also rating of the credit.
One strong hit in stocks except for the banks(comparatively lower) and a spike in USD to a level of about 51 cannot be ruled out by March 09.
FY11 is going to be good for all the sectors as by then the story would have been re written and growth most of the sectors could see reversal and commodities could remain range bound.
We should also expect the crude to increase and may settle between 60-75USD a barrel.
Happy Investing and number cruncing!!
Wish you all very Happy New Year 2009!
Posted by Dinesh at 7:13 PM Links to this post