Growth in Sensex Nifty
Insitutional Investors acting as Pied Piper.
The situation is that a US based 5mUSD capital Company gives a Advertisement in Newspapers about investi g 500BUSD in India, for the Govt to consider.
Retail investors are dispersed and cannot push sectors, stocks and hence , there is a leader, the communicatuon is made to reach through brokers, influencers, Channels, anchors about stocks and sectors.
Retail presence and retail push. Investment and trading based on Headlines and Following up of US and Asian markets.
How much it is fundamental based. Sameer Arora, Fund Manager says it is retail and headline based investments. Source ET Now. RBI says..
https://www.google.com/amp/s/indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/stock-market-bubble-a-worry-for-rbi-7333557/lite/
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has again raised the red flag over the question of a bubble in the stock markets, which surged to record highs even after the Covid pandemic hit the country.
“This order of asset price inflation in the context of the estimated 8 per cent contraction in GDP in 2020-21 poses the risk of a bubble,” the RBI said.
India Had 5 cr demat accounts till march 2020.
In last 1 year , india added 2 crore more demat accounts.
Considering, reduced Deposit rates, technology , access , trading through apps, and sales proposals, easy to open demat and trading accounts, Online transactions have gone up. Education, training of equity, futures and options is also helping.
2 lakh people are as agents distribute Mutual funds.
Role of LIC, Porfolio Investors, Mutual Funds, Foreign Investors, SIP is almost 1 crore in numbers.
Average Returns have been close to 50-100% 2021 Vs Loss, Erosion Liquidity of Average 50% in 2020.
So, unless this happens, and the money has to flow from retail consumers, hence cartel not allowing to fall markets and hemve , MF, Bans, Institutions is saved by way of money channeled and hence even funds, fund managers have been able to save themselves and ofcourse, NAV worldwide,
As a theory, Liquidity push, monetary expansion has to be supported by way of retail investors bringing money into financial peoducts so that subscription of primary, secondary instruments happens and hence , Sentiments are kept high.
This was written and analysed in 2020 March, April , when Covid Started and markets worldwide fell by 40% and crude, commodities, logostics quotes, even came down and trade finance even now is unlicking, unwinding and hence , slowly, right pricing for shipping lines is happening as a process of settlement, price discovery and re pricing of assets have happened.
This market is to watched. I expect that ti OCT , the markets will not fall, but in Aug to Oct markets shohld fall by 20%. Foreign Fund Managers have to show returns and distribute reyurns. Their year end is Oct and Dec.
So, they will wait or will again cartelise and use negative news , or even create a negative news.
Voda Idea Ltd ..buy and hold , low value , to watch, promising, 262m 26 cr users, losing customers to airtel and jio. It is having high debt of 25000 crore , with little ebidta of 700 crores and topline of 12-15000 crore, expenses reduced, restructuring and fund raising happening. With strong backing of Birlas and Kumar Managalam birla heading, revival shall happen and must see that in 2017 it was the right move to have acquired Idea and Voda both and hemve digital is way forward. Aggression missed and delayed the revival.
Bajaj Finance..buy trade and sell, strong and good book with reduced npa and Tech Fintech conversion
Snowman Logistics buy and trade and sell, they are to distribute the Sputnik V, vaccination.
Cadila , buy and hold and should give 10-15 return range and exit, they are up for IPO and own Vaccine.
Happy Investing!
Dislaimer , views and no responsibility and any decisions, outcome , actions either based on this or as influenced by this.
Sadhguru says Why and How Top 80-90 people of the World Knows Everything in Advance and if these people are given to him to transform , the world will transform
ReplyDeleteIt is an effort to show an prove that sock market is doing great ...but lets wait, in Aug /Sept , atleast it is my expectation based on the need for booking profits by top MF, Portfolio Investors as they have to close books, get bonuses before December and give returns to their investors. This is possible only if the Lost Money is covered first ( NAV and actual losses ), credit lines of funds were in deep trouble due to fall in stocks and commodities , then that was covered and solved by way of revolving credit lines and revolving the hedge contracts roll over, and then now , to book profit of at least 20% the markets have to be at 45000*1.2 levels that is 5300-5500 levels and then it will get crashed suddenly and lets wait for the news .....and lets see which cartel , the top 80 people how they manage this, when they decide.....
now people have started giving advertisements for such large investments ...
ReplyDeleteRemember days of pledging gold to borrow funds to avoid default as a country in 1991 ....
Now in 2021...in 30 years ...see the sea change
Idea Voda 》》Guarantees Released by Govt 》》 Limits Released by Banks 》》 fresh liquidity and funding expected soon 》》 Further Dilution and Increased Valuation 》》 Further New Improved technological and business plan models with investments expected soon...
ReplyDeleteWith natural disclaimer 》》 worth position already 300% increased in 1 year
Markets have further Fallen by 4-5%- thereby bringing it down by almost 14-15% from its highs. Analysis has come true again. Fx USD/INR parity for the first time in last 15 years has fallen short by 2 Rupees as when it was 76 - it was predicted to hit 70 levels and it came at 72. Considering the Sensex Fall and that there is a Direct Correlation between the two, hence the depreciation in INR. Dollar Index is still hovering between 95-96 levels and this is inspite of overall positive and improved numbers. Except for the fact that ther is a fear of Omicron. In any case, the news , instance was to happen between Oct 21 Dec 21 as the profit booking was supposed to be done. The same was also written that something - some negative news will crop up from somewhere and just read the minds of top 100 investors of the world.
ReplyDelete