Already Written on June 7 2025 on QE and other points
Exactly happening same
https://dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com/2025/06/economic-and-monetary-policy-direction.html
China referred Thucydides Theory or the Thucydides Trap, it refers to an idea derived from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides.
While explaining the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides wrote:
“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
Modern Interpretation: Thucydides Trap
The theory suggests that:
* When a rising power challenges an established dominant power,
* Fear, insecurity, miscalculation, and rivalry increase,
* Making conflict or war more likely.
Now Whats happening and direction
1. US has no option but to go for QE
2. Rate Cuts is not a solution at this moment
3. Biggest Threat is Japan, Iran and AI .
4. Range is 72500-77500 with 800-1500 upside/downside single day min 3 times for punters and quants to make 1.5% min monthly return.
5. Likely Fall probability 60% (500-900) and 40% sideways (300-500)
6. USD decoupling is serious and Unwinding of Japan YEN, RMB, Peteodollar, GBP and reducing weight in trade and reserve basket to 50% level from 75%
7. Coins business and USDT wallet with Tether and Circle as a company with national trust backing and holding US Treasuries is a game where they are looking for retail and institutional investors in Coin and attracting international retail money.
8. Blackrock and Larry Fink is not able to digest the change and is new to economic equation as coins May defy economics
9. USD Loosing sheen : In any case , USD as a King -Dynasty -Forced -Defence :Currency May last another 10-20 years and hence Multipolar and bilateral trade with even SWIFT mode is to be getting reduced channel
10. An escalation of war and just to retain USD is world reserve currency is supposed to happen
11. Gold has to move up and May cross 5500 and even 6000 at USD Index range of 97-110
12. INR and JPY to depreciate next 10 years and appreciate after that.
13. A war with India in next 2 years using Pakistan cannot be ruled out considering US and Chinese interest.
14. India Needs to manage internal savings and actual FDI and capital formation as both savings and capital formation is down. Portfolio investments have to be restricted as a % of GDP.
15. Agri , Healthcare and Infrastructure sectors should be opened with local partner 26% minimum and Initial Soverien and RR Fund creation of 1 Trillion USD as hedge for people !
16. AI and data sharing should be stopped by India.
17. Indian AI and Quantum with Space reasearch should be funded by Govt with all PPP and involving Top 100 engineering and accounting, management Colleges! - with retail participation of people !
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