[10/05, 14:35] Dinesh Kr Goel: My View
3M 10 Y 7.15-7.5
6M 10 Y 7.15 -7.25
9-12M 10 Y 7.0-7.1
3M USD 76.5- 78.5
6M USD 76.5-77.75
9-12M USD 77 +/- .5
12M -15M USD 77
EURO to depreciate by 15% in next 12M-24M
CNY to gain 5%
USD to depreciate 5%
Hence, some part is to get offset and hence INR shall be volatile
[10/05, 15:02] Dinesh Kr Goel: Just a turmoil..everything will settle and nothing much to happen. Sweden and Finland will join NATO. Ukraine will loose some part of land.
Russia too cannot afford to loose 40% of country revenue from Europe- Oil and Gas. Cannot sell cheap. Can remain out of OPEC but then eventually will have to join OPEC.
Rouble too will loose its sheen and then if sanctions continue, a major economic crisis can happen in next 12M. To avoid and to settle, it will have to stop and negotiate.
I feel buy on fall. Every fall. Already at 54k and with a full scope of 53k. But Bounce will be very fast.
It's going to cross 60 and hover between 60-65K.
Commodities and where international dependence is there and where there is a ripple multiplier effect.
Freight Costs have jumped 5-10 times based on region. 300/500 per container going for 1000-2000 range.
Insecurity, Hoarding and Supply Chain issues wrt to inputs, farming and selling is creating a Effect of Contango and GridLock.
Agri Commodities are bound to be inflationary for next 24 months and some kind of repricing is expected on account of PPP repricing
OIL and GAS are going to be inflationary and and an insecurity, Hoarding and Freight Costs.
Coal at 200USD/tonne - is a joke and power , cement(which consumes 25-27% energy are going to be major losers.
Additional Government borrowings on account of hoarding for food, Oil, Gas, Coal in regions of Africa, Europe, MiddleEast, Asia will see Interest Rates Rising. ADDITIONAL investments in supply chain and storage will require fresh investments.
All this coupled with health/ Covid related fear and insecurities are leading to further aggravation of Supply chain.
Eventuality, Local and self reliance is the new norm atleast for next couple of years , in medium term of upto 3 years as allocation and decisions will have to be executed and hence, even if it is a waste, everyone gets another chance to make money as worldover it happens.
Gold has moved from 1200 levels to 2000 levels in last couple of years. Russia was buying and was making itself secure by way of Agri developments as well.
Gold to continue shining and is the safest bet as atleast 10-20% of savings should be in GOLD.
Happy Investing,
Dinesh Kr Goel
With disclaimers...
Sensex. 53090- 53K level Hit as analysed.
As scope for 1500-3000 points further down is there.
Good Stocks are down by almost 15-20% due to Beta.
This gives a Buy opportunities.
Patience post investment is what is required. Supply Chain and WAR needs to be monitored.
Revised Estimates
3M 10 Y 7.15-7.5
6M 10 Y 7.15 -7.25
9-12M 10 Y ~7.0-7.1~
Revised - 7.15-7.30
3M USD 76.5- 78.5
6M USD 76.5-77.75 Revision 2 - >> 78.75+/- 0.50
Revised 9-12M USD ~77~ +/- .5 - 78 +/-0.5 - Revision 2 - >> 9-12M USD 78-79 +/- 0.5
12M -15M USD ~77~ 78 +/-0.5 - Revision 2 - >> 9-12M USD 78-79 +/- 0.5
Dinesh said...Inflation and Interest Rates US - USD - Fed hiked rate by 75basis points- Dollar is depreciating,
Dollar Index is Down, - as was shared and written - Dollar Index moved from 94/95 to 105 levels and this has started coming down.
USD/INR Movement is in line and within the range shared
Markets moved as envisaged
10Y yields in exactly the same levels as written
Written and shared that the Ukraine war can end any day in future - Now the AJay Bagga and all others have started saying the same
Markets may move up Substantial and hit back 57k+ levels is what now others have also started saying
Euro is also starting to depreciate and Inflationary pressures are affecting europe
Finland is most critical to NATO entry which again may be an Issue - BUT - this time Finalnd will not be given an entry or even if NATO entry given , there will be riders.
Lot of Non Plan Expense and hoarding has happened in Europe and US, Rlelease of These stocks will see major drop sudden drop of GAS/OIL /WHEAT / FERTILISER Prices.
Happy Investing
7 comments:
Sensex. 53090- 53K level Hit as analysed.
As scope for 1500-3000 points further down is there.
Good Stocks are down by almost 15-20% due to Beta.
This gives a Buy opportunities.
Patience post investment is what is required. Supply Chain and WAR needs to be monitored.
Revised Estimates
3M 10 Y 7.15-7.5
6M 10 Y 7.15 -7.25
9-12M 10 Y ~7.0-7.1~
Revised - 7.15-7.30
3M USD 76.5- 78.5
6M USD 76.5-77.75
Revised 9-12M USD ~77~ +/- .5 - 78 +/-0.5
12M -15M USD ~77~ 78 +/-0.5
Inflation and Interest Rates US - USD - Fed hiked rate by 75basis points- Dollar is depreciating,
Dollar Index is Down, - as was shared and written - Dollar Index moved from 94/95 to 105 levels and this has started coming down.
USD/INR Movement is in line and within the range shared
Markets moved as envisaged
10Y yields in exactly the same levels as written
Written and shared that the Ukraine war can end any day in future - Now the AJay Bagga and all others have started saying the same
Markets may move up Substantial and hit back 57k+ levels is what now others have also started saying
Euro is also starting to depreciate and Inflationary pressures are affecting europe
Finland is most critical to NATO entry which again may be an Issue - BUT - this time Finalnd will not be given an entry or even if NATO entry given , there will be riders.
Lot of Non Plan Expense and hoarding has happened in Europe and US, Rlelease of These stocks will see major drop sudden drop of GAS/OIL /WHEAT / FERTILISER Prices.
Happy Investing
https://youtu.be/Tc_NuixbJ2I
Happens...
NATO Accepts both applications
Russia also accepts ...
Restricts to Ukraine.
All to settle ...in few months....or any day
Clear Stand to revive european and western countries relations...and saving self too.
Analysed and in line with the Euro Movement
https://dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com/2022/05/treasury-view-fx-mm-eq-cmd-forex-momey.html
10th May 2022
EURO to depreciate by 15% in next 12M-24M
CNY to gain 5%
USD to depreciate 5%
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Exchange_rates_and_interest_rates#:~:text=Highlights&text=Between%202011%20and%202021%2C%20the,12.3%20%25%20against%20the%20Swiss%20franc.
Between 2011 and 2021, the euro depreciated overall by 15.2 % against the Chinese renminbi-yuan, 15.0 % against the United States dollar and by 12.3 % against the Swiss franc.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/euro-continues-to-slide-toward-dollar-parity-and-could-fall-even-further.html
Euro continues to slide toward dollar parity — and could fall even further
The prospect of an economic slowdown also casts a specter of doubt over whether the European Central Bank will be able to tighten monetary policy sufficiently to rein in record-high inflation.
Deutsche Bank suggested that the euro could fall into the $0.95-0.97 range if “Europe and the U.S. find themselves slip-sliding in to a (deeper) recession in Q3 while the Fed is still hiking rates.”
1. 10th May Written that the Sensex range will be 52-53K achieved 2. It was also written on 10th May and 16th June that Sensex once crosses back 53K will jump fast and hit 57K.
[31/07, 10:51] Dinesh Kr Goel: 1. 10th May Written that the Sensex range will be 52-53K achieved 2. It was also written on 10th May and 16th June that Sensex once crosses back 53K will jump fast and hit 57K levels. In July it has increased by 9%. It was advised in May to buy on every Fall and at 52-53K Levels. If it breached 53K and remains there for few days ..it will languish for some time below 53K.Happened. Once it crosses 53K back, will move fast to 57 levels - Happened.
https://dkgoelenkash.blogspot.com
[31/07, 11:51] Dinesh Kr Goel: only one event of settlement of Ukraine Russia Europe. It may ..likely ..1st full month of german cold will break europe and force for a settlement. To save Zelensky US will also budge and like crimea it will take away east of Ukraine. Escalation and regional esclation of war - Europe, US cannot afford.
Wait anxiously to hear a settlement and sensex crossing 60K. Same was written on 10th May..finland and sweden and NATO will also have to agree for FOR not placing nukes,jets, long range missiles. Russia also will have to give away military way....it has been estaished that politics cannot force the world into 3rd World War. Politics has lost its power in front of regional natural resources, people and economic stability.
Europeans are not FIT and resolve is not there to fight. Objectives have changed and hence focus.
Russia has a genuine reason and the same has been felt and accepted by european NATO and it is only because of Supremely and EGO that it is prolonging.
NATO is a Detterent than a Force. No one Can Afford 3rd world war.
So wait for settlement soon and sensex to move up , supply chain issues to resolve in 1 year, freight to come down, metal prices to move up or remains sideways with 5-10% change, Bullion to stabilise ,
Finance and pahunchti pick up again.
Asset Repricing will have to be done by way of Money Supply Pumping and this will lead further avg 10% increase in all asset with lead and lag factors.
China and US will never go to war on any issue. Economic loss will be huge to both.
Every President or Head of State like Prime Ministers are trying to save their Chair and hence to justify people and politics they agree to level of acceptable destruction.
So Asian and Indians who are isolated are 3rd World are still better and who are still not colonies and who can manage external debt will sustain long term.
Flow of capital is bound to go to Countries like India for food security and Production.
Happy Investing
With personal views and disclaimers of nothing prejudice and no personal gain.
Present Dow Fall is an orchestrated cartelised fall considering geopolitical and funds backed control of markets. FED announcement of Interest Rate hike was almost discounted and there is nothing surprise but an event was made out of this.
Expect a Faster bounce immediately.
Stop Loss triggers and pressure on perception of a Dooms Day is being created to hammer the and Refer the Trumph speech of Inflation and Markets falling. Power of Cartel and economics controlling power is going to be proven shortly...
Get ready to hear default in Europe, US, China , CIS countries.
It will be spiralling el nino wd gann effect 14000 prediction of Nifty was analysed and a range was shared ...the impact of fall and volatility will be much less as Indian economy is still dependent on Domestic Demand. Only issue is of USD INR and Supply Chain Constraints.
Though there is a stabilization of production..buy the speed of capital formation, FDI and bank credit has picked up for additional capacity creation in Retail, Core and Infra.
The analysis and Range along with strategy remains good and holds good.
Even after 4% Down Fall...Indian sensex analysis of Strong Support at 57000 holds good.
5% Chance of Days Close on marginal Higher Side.
15% Chance on close less than 500 points down
80% Chance of Closing at 750-1000 points
Volatity Range can be of 1200 points Intraday
At lower levels - Keep an eye on Rolex Rings. Buy 1650-1725 and Can keep for medium term.
Intraday- BTST..or even STBT or S - B Today can be good for Higher Beta Sticks.
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