New Energy Markets and Economic Outlook US UAE Europe EurAsia Asia Africa
Look for Japanese monetary actions in Rates (zero rate policy from 1991) and JGB taking to 6B USD in 2007 to 12B USD in 2022 with 1.2 trillion Dollars of reserves with 1.1 trillion in US denomination. 250% leveraged. With USD/JPY 140-155 range, what else can be expected. Compare to what happened in 1988-1995. JPY carry trade and then Swissy carry in 2000-2008.
Then look for RMB declared appreciations for almost 15 years to give a good return to investors. They managed to increase exports and Trade surplus inspite of Currency appreciation by way of FDI , manufacturing, economies of scale, ports, supply chain, storage, infra and cheaper lower quality products.
Next is China, Now with Covid Impact lead and lag impact of Covid , Real Estate, infra delays and defaults leading to banking defaults, depreciation of RMB will lead to further rebalancing. Now who is able to take the FDI and manufacturing shift, move ? And who ever is moving to China for energy costs due to Russia China energy collaboration, the result will again be a great benefit to China, and Asia.
The BIG question is Can Chinese markets can be dependable for Equity Currency Bonds and Credit Swaps ?
Stages
Inflation - Stagflation - Disinflation
Bear to recovery to growth - Asset Repricing and Quantitative easing is not the solution.
Solution is rebalancing and decoupling of USD as reserve and currency.
Maintain Supply Chain and deliveries intact without hoarding.
Stop speculative Futures and Options till distortion is settled.
Price Discovery has to be on Actual Physical Market availablity.
Symbiotic Relationship
GRIDLOCKING - cycle
FX Currency to MM Bonds to CDS Credit CP'S to EQ Equities to CMD Commodities
Yield Curve is Inverted after 1981...
15-36 Months
Europe -Ve
1. Impact on Industries
2. Economy
3. Currency
4. Banks
5. Credit Default And For
Eurasia & Asia +Ve.
Serbia and Kajakhistan to be doing best. Infra and logistics will be great investments.
UAE +Ve
Multiple Options and more of earnings for next 5 years atleast. Post 5 years may be settling down. Russia and China has already had a major impact and they shall not let this go without a change. New Pipelines are under Construction. Brics , Asean are actual change.
15th July 2022
Dollar denomination is a classic example where, when there is less of inflation and when internally within the country US dollar is appreciating the outside world the Dollar Index increases, rates are low, other currencies depreciate, and when the economy is doing bad and inflation is high again then the dollar increases, the dollar index situation for the dollar - whether the economy is good or bad it is going to get benefited in every case...
15th Nov 2022
Is there a substitute of dollar ?
Can there be a substitute ever to dollar ?
Can there be a Dependable Yield Curve ?
JPY , JGB and JPY Yield Curve is broken ?
EURO is inconsistent !
Who are locking and hedging Fx and to what extent ?
Who are hoarding , what is getting hoarded ?
Where are freight costs headed ?
Refer other blogs and comments on hoarding, commodity prices, crude prices, etc
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