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Thursday, November 3, 2022

Still an Open secret for many : The Renewed Effort of Supremacy, Equity,Debt,Bonds,Commodities,Bullion,Currencies,Energy, Agri economics of Inflation back to double digit, actions of FED ECB EURASIA BRICS ASEAN UAE China Russia

Still an Open secret : The Renewed Effort of Supremacy


USD INDEX

Equity, Debt, Bonds, Commodities, Bullion, Currencies, Energy, Agri economics of Inflation back to double digit, actions of FED ECB EURASIA BRICS ASEAN UAE China Russia  


FED increases another 75 basis points-  What No one is referring to are the efforts and events in Different zones, due to equity as easy money Myopic, Shortsighted, Undirected and efffortless approach. 

While we read and write -

India should take lead and create / Offer Secured settlement systems and use/push IDBRT systems, Due to best alternative to China in manufacturing and large local market, better and transparent enforceable knowledge, English speaking proper systems in legal , banking, technology, with corporate framework, acceptability will be faster as compared to China and Russia.

Be prepared for QT then QE and then a real growth in Asia, China, CIS, Russia, Africa where the population concentration is there. It will be *√* ( inflation  Higher Rate Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing to Deflation, Stagflation then Growth, Rebalancing of Currencies,  Barter BCS based) and √ shaped in next 2-10 years of economic growth / equities and expect fresh Debt in emerging markets with actual large FDI inflow. This should help in deciding 60+ strategies to trade and take long term positions.

Strategy for Banks and Individuals are - Keep Liquid , Invest and buy Low Duration Bonds, Take positions in Local Strong Diversified Vertically Integrated stocks. Reduce exposure to single currency and diversify basket of assets.

Present Ukraine Conflict- has taken a shape and taking shape as written Documented, planned between Eurasia, (CIS), Russia, China, Saudi.

Even to trade you still need to see Macro , Long-Medium-Short term. We grow older, we read less and infer more and faster.

Capitalism Which Did Well is going to shift it's dominance - Opening of Economies To Trade Zones has been the effort. 

Due to limitations and lack of guidance, we see what we see and never look beyond.

It's easier said than done.

Where are we headed - This will make things clear and 

Since 1994 , Post Soviet Break Down, Boris Yetsin, Putin has been trying to create an economic union and trade zone of CIS countries. Formally made one in 2000, then again in 2010 and again in 2015 which worked active.

China worked On Internal Economy , Colonialism, FDI, and simultaneously on  *OBOR*. On Belt On Road to Revive Old Trade routes and cover 65% of of world population and Trade with more than 60 countries.

Eventually, these efforts of Russia and China are converging, and US and Britain are now Cross Checked. US and Britain also knew and we're waiting, or got delayed in understanding the Convergence. Hence Markets and trades and investors too delayed and took short view.

With Trillions of Dollars of reserves, Infra in place, European and US companies dependent on China, with world's 50% natural resources between CIS, Russia, China, UAE, BRICS, ASEAN, it is going to be easier now to challange US - USD, Euro - Europe.

China Russia this time cannot back track as if this time they leave they will be pushed for many years and hence 

The ongoing war of supremacy shall eventually will see some major events ...Bio War - Economic - Commodity Grid Locking including Some stretched War also.

Let's put effort to know and not look for easy money but look for easy available research.

Happy Investing

Dinesh Kumar Goel


DATA AND CHARTS 








2 comments:

Dinesh said...

Markets have behaved exactly as analysed.

Upside downside range , resistance have all been working well. 60K, Day Trade Range of 300+/-, weekly Range of 500+/- and Monthly Range of 1000+/-.

Markets in India are expected to rise 63K was next Barrier and if crossed , it will cross 65K .

Escalation of WAR is ruled out. Nukes are ruled out.

Except for US recession, There is no reason as to why the markets will fall and behave as happened in 2008.US inflation is going to come down the impact of such recession/economic slowdown will take time to hit corporates and exports. Flow of FDI in India will be good beyond 100BUSD as against 85B last year.

Russian Trade and two way Exports needs to be increased and China trade with Supply Chain for BRICS needs to be improved

All this will take time and hence, actual economic impact will be gradual and speculative , felllung like perceptional fall can be there for flight of capital and to weaken BRICS/India leading to Fall of markets.thatbtoo will be not more than lower side of 58K.

Saudi Opec Stand on Petrodollards is key and major economic event.

Counter issue is that of major European corporates are still moving to China.

Considering Economic Pressures, Funds like BlackRock (who manages directly 10 trillion USD assets , and are advising to central banks and indirectly manages another couple of trillion dollars, are forcing Biden to give up and stop the WAR and negotiate. BlackRock portfolio duration is 3 years and hence US mostly can sustain shocks for 3-5 years with max Interest Rate of 8%.
Which is a good cushion but will fail if Petrodollards Saudi Decoupled.

Europe too has understood and they are too buckling economically with winters on head.

This is exactly what was being waited by PUTIN.

Look for Upside and Trade. Now for Markets to go Up by 600+ points in a single day will see lot of Commitment as for every point increase , overall commitment required is close to 1000 crore per point.

India’s strong economic growth makes country attractive

Indian markets decoupled from other markets in the short term

Retail and some FII flows driving markets since August

MSCI India index has outperformed the MSCI Emerging Mkt index by 27% in the past 12 mths

Happy Investing and Safe Investing with Covered positions and Trade using Profits as Capital. VaR should be divided by no of trades and Expectation should be For. day, Week, Month and Year.

Dinesh said...

It has happened America ..Biden ...Economists FED and Funds including Banks ..the economic pressure and people are all pressuring to declare and invite Russian Inspectors with a clear direction on reducing war and nuke exposures

France's Macron has got the feeler and has worked to diffuse by sharing preparedness of Russia and resolve to win.

Europe too has fallen flat and now German Chancellor running to China ...

Saudi Prince Coming to India has put further pressure as this may create further pressure on BRICS and Petro dollars. A major client has gone to Russia.

There should and has to be a alternate currency and alternate to Swift. There is nothing wrong rather systematic risk should be diversified.