Negative events expected, Confusion, economic slow down in china, Russia, CIS countries, Europe, US, (as major consumers of energy, commodities agri - non agri, major importers of products and services) is leading to reduced trade, over expenditure on Defence and Hoarding.
This is further leading to increase in interest rates in last 1 year, leading to higher yields and reduced bond prices meaning treasury losses, making banks, funds to shut and asking for bail out - We should any time start seeing QE again,
Asia is lagging as they are still isolated, but spiral impact, reduced Steel prices and reduced Automobile sales is going to be lead indicator in next few months.
In China already Automotive discounts of upto 50% has started.
China's trade surplus of 1.5 T USD has vanished, Real estate is already down for last 3 years.
IT , BFSI services demand is accordingly reducing and impact is getting felt in terms of layoffs, salary offers of new recruits,
Environment hazards in US is also impacting their purchasing power.
Overall, Dollar Index is down, BlackRock managing 20TUSD funds and advisors are also facing pain, Blackstone has already defaulted on 540 mUSD real estate fund,
Banks have already led to losses /liquidity crunch of 500 bUSD in last 6 months. This will certainly have ripple effect and cannot be solved without Subsidising by way of Govt Supports and QE.
This, 2023 is , should be tight and range bound with only few markets going to be stable or might give some returns, like India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa.
Defence Stocks, Blue Chip Sensex Stocks like Reliance, Aramco, Tesla, Airtel, Agri Stocks, Adani due to coal trader ( additional Rs 5000 cr is expected from Coal India and NTPC due to price rise ), Kalyani, Cummins, Microsoft, Google, Pharma , Glaxo, Sanofi, Nestle are the ones who shall be sustaining and may even give returns.
Gold since analysed and suggested, has already increased from INR 45K to 60+k. It still has potential to go up by 10% in 2023.
Happy Investing.
Disclaimer of No Liabilities and it is only a view not a recommendation
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