New Highs - Sensex , Numbers and Facts

What wins is Truth, Fact and One has to travel towards it. 

World first travelled to loot Indian Treasures and Now World is travelling to Create Treasure.

Victory of True Indian DNA the intrinsically Value Based Economy and Culture. 

Markets and Economy, Forex, Crude, Gold moved exactly as predicted analysed.💁 Refer Previous views.

Again…moving  markets have one way to go today increased as predicted with 70% probability. 

Markets up.

Reliance is up and started movement.

Banking - Axis, HDFC, SBI, UCO

Telecom - Airtel

Defence - All stocks as a basket

Adani Ports

Tata Motors

Dalmia Cement On fall due to shree cement impact on cement industry, 

Shree cement after its fall...after few weeks..to bounce back

Vodafone - long term..buy at lowest price and keep

Cummins Kirloskar

Bharat forge

Kalyani

Jindal Pipes

JSW Steel

M&M

Agri Stocks - Cold Chain and Storage

Software companies and wallets - to not do good- or remain sideways or give less returns, TCS will do better due to presence in Defence Software too, Tata Advanced Systems will be big contributor to TATA.

L&T - It is all set to increase and cross based on milestones 

When to sell and for how long to keep and what returns one wants decides.

65K in 30-60 Days

68 K 60-150 Days

70 K 150-270/365 Days.

Year end profit booking 3 times will be there by about 3% each time. Sir fall of 1500 points each time is expected 3 times and rebound will be there. So there should not be any panic.

Gold - Crossed and stayed at 60K+ , as analysed much in advance - refer previous blogs. Though it is a bit down to 58-59K levels, but has the under current and need for Gold. One as a future change in currency basket and petrodollar’s with Dollar Index to fall in may be 3~10 years, European decoupling with US. Present minor correction can last for 6-15 months and can be 55-62 K. Correction is on account of reduced buying by China and Russia and selling by few smaller countries, reduced working capital in extraction of gold.

Brent Crude : Average of 2000-2023 is 77. What could be the balance growth with Saudi needing more funds for its own development and development of NEOM. What about alternate fuels. It has been a tool for petrodollars with Russia decoupling from Europe and Asian markets and China becoming largest buyer of Russian oil and new lines getting in place with China and Iran will eventually supply oil openly to Europe and Asia in another 24 months, Crude either will be between 75-80 with 50% probability and 70-75 with 50% probability in next 10 years. Another point to consider is the fact that the marginal cost of extraction remains low at max 3-10 USD / barrel and there is not much of fresh investments in drilling happening.

Interest Rates as shared by FED and RBI the tightening stand is getting stagnated and this may see softer regime or even a reduction of about 1% in 4 tranches starting Dec2023/March 2024

Yields have again been in the range as analysed before. Softening by 15BPS by Jan for a 10Y GSec should be good.

Forex USD/INR is again hovering 81.5-82.5 with sudden pressures and may even , if India gets another 250BUSD FDI, may fall and remain at 81 levels. Appreciation is a policy who is now need of hour to attract more FDI.

Money Supply - Note in circulation has moved from 17 lakh crores to 33 lakh crores in 6 years. It is to support 3T USD economy and is expected to go to 50 lakh crore to support 5T USD economy in 3-5 years. Significance of this growth is not because of FDI or Portfolio Investment, but majorly because of Internal demand supply and production. 

Tax collections Direct and indirect are at ats peak, what happened that GST collections have more than doubled - from 95K per month to 190K crore per month?

Govt’ money is actually going to people’s account and buying is broad based with Wallet /UPI and online transactions are at its peak with almost 10 crore transactions per month expected.

Infrastructure growth and road sector companies have almost stopped becoming NPA. Housing Projects are getting delivered at faster pace and RERA is active. Increase in toll collection and real estate prices are a reality.

Indian Banking is at its best in automation, with its own System of transmission and transaction. 

India will reap the benefit of e-commerce and Agricultural boom with agri commerce and eVillage by making it easy, accessible, cheap, free, voice based and integrated one stop solution for all throughout and supporting activities along with health, education and sanitation.

What has made this possible? And what is going to make the next push and milestone possible?

Beware of events on Elections, Political changes, Ukraine, China LOC issues.

Disclaimer natural and financial. 

Only personal views.

Dinesh Goel

🙏