Markets Overdue for Correction ! almost 10% and stocks May fall by 15-20% average due to Beta >1. AI stocks are another threat and they May eventually become bigger than the giants !
Retail Real Estate ks showing signs of pressure as Renovo happened and underlying assets become worthless! PIK Pay in Kind is just negotiated restructuring of loans without much regulatory implications as long as lender or underwriter keeps accepting PIK and interest servicing happens!
Gold May hover version INR 1 -1.2 lakhs that is 3750-4250 USD/Tounce and USD/INR if crosses 90 and settles between 89-91 is not a very far day assessment. USD is a double edged sword and benefits from appreciation and depreciation both.
Japan, US and unwinding of Carry on JPY has started as Japan Domestic Interest is at 2.8% highest in 33 years . JGB Yield appreciation, price fall will lead to almost 250B USD to US, Japanese banks and Investment Banks in 2 yrs based on MTM/HTM portfolio.
Britain started non repayment of Principal Concept in 1675 around - borrowed gold with never repayment condition and interest for ever with Govt/Kind/Queens Guarantee, including printing of exchangeable Hundi/ Notes.
Hence US and world follows it.
World is at 315T USD of Debt with US at 38 TUSD.- No worries !! QE is solution for all.
Gold will remain Reserve currency for all with now limited reserves of 3 L tonnes and annual extraction of around 6-8000Tonnes.
Rate earth Metals , EV sector will always be bullish, Solar, Undersea Cables, Power /Nuclear/Thorium/ Wind/Water power. Defence and AI/ Tech is buzz with Sat Gen Internet and Space Exploration , Drone, smart healthcare , Insurance and tech based lending , Banking and wealth management! Copper and Zinc will be better than Iron in terms of returns.
Education will move to skill based and hence burden on Govts to cater to people at large over 10-50 years! Expertise and automation with AI will degrade the education levels.
HAL is bound to cross 10K. Airtel shall do well. Unless political change happens.
Rest, there has been no return or little return kind of situation in markets for last 1.5 years. With CAGR of 12-15% pa in equities in last 25-35 years, it still remains a good combo!
Stay positive , stay liquid !!
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