Markets - Geo Political - Situation Supply Chain - USA USD Supremacy - Dollar Strength and Default

Markets - Geo Political - Situation Supply Chain - USA USD Supremacy - Dollar Strength and Default

53K resistance was shared and breaking of resistance and remaining there will lead to further pressure. Bit upside is expected huge ...as Ukraine war is expected to settle any day now in near future.

Europe and US cannot afford anymore and in particular Europe.

Rouble has already strengthened to 67. It went from 77 to 150 and now at 67. It is a clear victory of Putin in war politics and economics.

There are few pointers to refer

1. A country which is not getting 25-30% capital formation including FDI inflow and 20% plus savings rate for few years as per its Size and Targets shall not be able create trade surplus and sustainable internal and external markets

New India or any other country can be mapped and other countries like Chile, China, Singapore, Malaysia and few others can be compared

2. Currency Appreciation as tool to give returns to Investors is a strong and accepted form of creating a positive economic sense and perception

3. Infrastructure like ports, roads, airports, railways, logistics, storage, healthcare are key to long term sustained support to growth. Balancing of the current, social sector, non plan expenditure and capital formation is key to success.

4. focus on Business and economics is more important than politics and hence direction and efforts have to be in sync and not to be derailed by different parties and sections/groups

5. Territorial Integrity and Safeguarding of  borders, people and assets needs stronger Army and hence accordingly increased spending.

6. In 1973, USA tried to be supreme by way of linking USD to Gold and when it worked, the Gold backed currency was de-linked with link.

7. USD Outstanding as a printed currency, as a floating currency in the world should be compared with the Capability of USA to honor any Currency Conversion in case of More Supply and and Less of Demand for Dollars - The Answer is that USA has no liability to Honor that Conversion if the Supply of USD's / Demand of USD's mismatch. Hence there is no reserve to Honor settlement of USD in CHIPS / FastForex/SWIFT.

8. Compare this with the Internal Debt of USA and the repeated approvals they seek from the Parliament to print more currency and increase the Budget to Spend more. With 18 Trillion USD of Economy, what is the percentage of their Internal Production and Consumption.

9. Currency Crisis of 1980's and devaluations with Zero Rate of Interest Policies like in Japan, have seen the immaturity , Lawlessness and disparity of Valuation of Currencies.

10. Present Geo Political Situation clearly highlights and forces every one on this earth to think 

• who shall bell the cat and who is going to listen?

• why not almost 100+ countries should go and declare / pass legislation in their parliaments to claim the loot that any Ruler / Britishers should apologize for human rights violations and give some monetary claims as a gesture or as a part of valuation based on indexation or as of a cut off Date

• we should do away with commonwealth games and polarization, war and capture of parts of land of other countries. Every Nation should return and all pieces of land as was the situation on the date of independence. 

• once the cold war era was over and even USSR was broken into countries, there has to be a reason to dissolve NATO and hence Non Aligned Movement should be enhanced. who shall permit a group coming and putting warheads on your gate and keep on pressuring for no reason and rhyme.

• US and UNSC should be strengthened and broad based to finish this utter supremacy fight and rule.

• the world order as of  is worst that Jungle and actually there is no law, no human rights and no intention too. Using and Misusing weak smaller countries, the whole of Africa and its natural resources, mines are owned by the USA,  Europeans and Chinese and there is utter deprivation. World has lot of money and resources then why ? - Fear / Insecurity ,  Greed and Habitual Nature to Acquire / Control. Present War and pushing / giving of weapons and tempting / pulling nations into NATO against Russia is a aggressive exercise knowingly and even knowingly misusing Ukraine.

•  knowingly people are being killed in all conflict zones, Africa, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Middle east, POK, Aksaichin, Baluchistan, Myanmar and many other countries and zones.

11. in view of above is there a Resolve towards Peace and Sustained Growth ? A Joke -  Who is searching for Happiness and Where one can find the happiness on this earth ? Where One Can find Covid free , Sabotage free place on earth ?

12.  Well, better economic index, Cult of economics and assets, availability, well being helps to achieve better religious, spiritual and health index. Socio Economis - ESG framework is key and UNSC, UN and Every Nation has to contribute and every nation has to make available its resources towards humanity and life.

13. Price discovery tools of futures and options have failed and created a fringe market with no base and no backing and no purpose. The objectives of price discovery leads to misnomer of capitalism and hence flight of capital representing the actual resources of a nation. A Classic case is of Sri-Lanka and few other countries and even Pakistan, few of the African Countries who are debt ridden to China and crippling to sustain and exist with freedom.

14. Irony is that all this is happing in 21st Century where we all claim to have Courts, International Laws, UN, UNSC and it all seems to be a joke and every nation is now feeling insecure and trying to ally or is planning to invest to create self security again leading to buy weapons from the top 10 weapon producing and selling countries.

15. Food Security, Supply Chain is also a joke as it is exposed that the dependent nations are worst hit and people are on the verge of starvation. Population of starving people have almost doubled.

16, Research and support for Bio Weapons like Covid is a Crime on Humanity and Nations involved into all these activities should be punished and banned or at-least now after Covid, Swine Flu etc should and must resolve on such activities.

Well, enjoy investing and to exist and to keep on making some money at least - Be on Job, Hold on to Job, Do Smart Business, Automate, Increase inventories and do better forecasting, keep reserve lines of credit and Stay Alert by investing in Technology as Technology is one such thing which will save and which has saved all of us during Covid.

Another major learning is stay connected and go back to times of social gathering and neighborhood watch area. Stay Connected and keep meeting people, family friends and society. 

As regards investing, the best way in volatile times is to take covered positions - min loss and optimum gain and hence use of again technology and financial solutions for getting the back-tested strategies like butterfly forms, straddle forms, condor forms etc.

Times have changed , Markets ( All - EQ,CMD,FX,MM) control and price discovery mechanism have changed from Individual to Individuals ( Cartel ), Corporates to Corporate ( Cartel ), Goons to Goons ( Cartels ), Funds to Funds ( Cartel ), Govt to Governments ( Cartel ) and now the control Mechanism is in the hands of Few Presidents and Prime Ministers. So much so that the Situations are where the Leaders are using Parliaments for declaring themselves as Presidents and Prime Ministers for decades. How it is not an ERA of Rulers like Aristotle ? Leaders are trying and have actualized the making of New Age Aristotle ? Akbar ? Napoleon ? So Called Kings ? 

Predicting Markets and Price ? Who is claiming to be too good ? 

Happy Investing and All the best ? Lets Enlighten and help the world to become a better place with a joke.

Personal views only and thought - without any prejudice and without any aspersions to anyone, any community and it is with natural and specific disclaimers.

Dinesh